Zero-Waste Cities As Climate Governance Instruments: A Zero Waste City Master Plan 2.0 Model For Türkiye Within UNFCCC–COP Process

Abstract

Urban waste decisions affect territorial methane emissions as well as emissions embedded in production and consumption, yet municipal plans rarely connect both effects to national climate reporting. This study develops a Zero Waste City Master Plan 2.0 model for Türkiye through a structured review, updated through 17 September 2026, of 34 peer-reviewed and official sources and three comparative cases: San Francisco, Ljubljana and China's Zero-Waste City pilot programme. Sources were coded for targets, waste-stream coverage, instruments, governance, climate accounting, equity and adaptive review. The resulting framework combines established zero-waste measures through four integration protocols: separate territorial and avoided-emission accounting; a municipal-to-national monitoring, reporting and verification hand-off; service-readiness and equity checks before enforcement; and predetermined review triggers. A transparent scenario for a representative city of one million residents estimates that diverting an additional 30% of an assumed 40% organic fraction from landfill to composting would avoid about 29,200 tCO2e per year, with a sensitivity range of 19,500-38,900 tCO2e for 20-40% diversion. This is a screening estimate, not a verified city inventory. Municipal results can inform Türkiye's national inventory, NDC implementation, and Biennial Transparency Reports only when national authorities apply consistent activity data, emission factors, quality assurance, and attribution rules. The framework remains an analytically derived proposition; expert review and municipal pilots are required before its effectiveness can be assessed.